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I received the following question over the vlog from a user called Tomas
Dear Horst,to begin with I would like to say thank you for your highly professional blog. Nearly each time I find something new or interesting. Now let´s get down to business. I have a few dozens of discontinued whisky bottles and each time I have a mood to open one I ask myself: Should I open this one? Maybe just this one will get a huge value in the future.. They are all more than good, I have already tasted them.So please would you be so kind and try to choose from the list below at least 10 bottles I should definitely keep because of their expectable value in the future? Thank you very much for your help and hope that your blog and work for whisky lovers will continue.Yours sincerely,TomasList of whisky:Laphroaig 25 yo, bottled 2007, 0,7l, 40%, 2500 bottlesGlenrothes 25 yo, bottled 2007, 43%, 0,7l, 2400 bottlesGlenrothes 19 yo, distilled 1995, 43%, 0,7lGlengoyne 23 yo, distilled 1986, 53,6%, 0,7l, single cask no. 399, 548 bottlesGlendronach 19 yo, distilled 1994, 53,5%, 0,7l, single cask no. 326, 452 bottlesGlendronach 15 yo, tawny port, 46%, 0,7lMacallan 18 fine oak, 0,7l, 43%Macallan 1950´s re-creation, 40%, 0,5lMacallan director´s 40%, 0,7lMacallan 10 yo, sherry cask, 40%, 0,7lMacallan 12 yo, sherry cask, 40%, 0,7lBalvenie 21 yo, 40%, 0,7lBalvenie 17 yo, madeira cask, 43%, 0,7l, bottled 2009Balvenie 17 yo, new wood, 40%, 0,7lBalvenie 15 yo, single barrel, 47,8%, 0,7lBalvenie 14 yo, roasted malt, 47,1%, 0,7lBalvenie 14 yo, golden cask, 47,5%, 0,7lBalvenie 12 yo, signature, batch 2, 40%, 0,7lBalvenie 12 yo, single barrel, 47,8%, 0,7lBalvenie 10 yo, founder´s reserve, 40%, 0,7lBruichladdich 21yo, cuvee 382, 46%, 0,7lBruichladdich celtic nations, bottled 2006, 7200 bottles, 46%, 0,7lBen Nevis 15 yo, distilled 1998, 300 bottles, 46%, 0,7l, Cárn mórBushmills 400th anniversary, 46%, 0,7lChivas regal 25 yo, 40%, 0,7lChivas regal revolve 17 yo, 40%, 0,5lFour roses, single barrel, 50%, 0,7lGlenfiddich 15 yo, cask strength 51%, 0,7l, old bottlingGlen scotia 12 yo, 40%, 0,7l, old bottlingJack Daniel´s 1981 gold medal, 40%, 1lJack Daniel´s, silver select single barrel, 50%, 0,7lJohnnie walker green label, 15 yo, 43%, 0,7lJohnnie walker gold label, 18 yo, 43%, 0,7lJohnnie walker blue label, 40%, 0,7lLark tasmanian single malt whisky, single cask 344, bottled 2014, 58%, 0,5lScapa 14 yo, 40%, 0,7lTamnavulin 12 yo, 40%, 0,7l
So, which ten would I keep for the rise in value?First of all, nearly all of these bottles are of excellent quality. But unfortunately that does not mean, that they will rise in price. There have to be collectors out there, which will buy those bottles in the future. There might be also bottles among the list, which have already risen in price.Unfortunately I do not find a bottle with an extreme potential in selling price. Like the Black Bowmore. But there are some bottles with a good rise in terms of relative rise in value (+100%).Laphroaig 25 yo, this one carries a vintage. Definitely a bottle for colletors.Glendronach 15 yo, this one has risen in price. But if a successive bottle appears the price will fall.Macallan 18 fine oak, unfortunately, this bottle carries, in contrast to the sherry oak bottle, no age statement. But I believe, that this Fine Oak range will be discontinued some time. Due to the shortage of Macallan, this bottle should have already risen in price.Macallan 1950´s re-creation, unfortunately, this is only one out of a series of four. But this bottle might be sold to complete anothers collectionAll of the no longer available Balvenie bottles have already risen in price. But the one you should go for is the Founder's Reserve. If it is in the old curved wine style bottle, then you already have e gem.Bruichladdich 21 yo cuvee 382, this is a bottle with an extreme potential.Glen Scotia 12 yo, this one should already have doubles its price.Scapa 14 yo, is becoming more and more expensive. This one could complete the collection of s.o.Tamnavulin 12 yo, the distillery is running again. The increase in demand for the old bottles will be there.
Dear Horst,thank you very much for your kind answer. I really appreciate it. You need to be in business to know, which product (which whisky from which distillery) has a chance to have a higher value in the future when there is a buyer. I understand that you have not mention the Glenrothes 25 yo, the Macallan 10 and 12 yo sherry cask in your selection. All of these bottles have already risen in value. But what is still unclear for me is this:1) If, for instance, the price of Glen Scotia 12 yo have already doubles the price (as you said and you are absolutely right), will this whisky continue to increase it´s value? On which conditions this will depends?2) How do anybody knows, that a distillery has a low stock of the old whisky? (for example Bruichladdich distillery at the moment). This will definitely have an impact on price. Are there any signs?3) Which whisky finishes/finishing is from a production technology and casks availability view the most expensive? (Margaux cask finish, Malaga finish, Claret, Cote de Nuits, Chateau Lafite, Gaja Barolo...etc.) I would also like to apologize to you for having my previous question on a wrong spot.Many thanks and have a nice day. Yours sincerely. Tomas
There are several different influences, why a particular whisky bottle rises in price. Let's have a look at the Glenrothes 25yr. The Glenrothes distillery has risen in importance only over the last 10 to 15 years. Before that time, they produced mostly for the Cutty Sark blend.There will be new 25yrs old bottlings in the upcoming future. Will they kill the price of the existing ones? There is a vintage written in small letters on the label. This is like Macallan with their 25yrs bottle. The rise in price was limited, because the successing bottles limited the price of the old ones. Since quite a time there is no further supply at Macallan an the prices have risen steeply. What to expect from Glenrothes? The next 25yrs bottle will kill the higher prices of the existig one. But the vintage will prevent the bottle from a too steep decline. This was the reason not to include the GR25.Glen Scotia was lately sold to another company which issued a new range. Unfortunately the new range shows less varity and - from some perspective - less quality. (I find the new 15yrs ok, but the Double Cask is sub optimal and the Victoriana far too expensive. People will mourn about the old bottlings. Therefore the prices may rise.You need a lot of experience to find out, if stocks are really low. You have to have your ear on the market. There are a lot of rumors. Most of them are of course only partly true. But if you look at the developing portfolios of the distilleries, you are able to make educated guesses.The provenience of the casks for finishing is a little tricky. A good pedegree will increase the value of a minor distillery a lot. And a minor ancestry will not harm a good distillery. But excellent casks combined with first tier distilleries is always a buy. But unfortunately the distilleries know already about htis value and the pricing of these bottles will be high.
Dear Horst,thank you very much for your kind reply. And not to forget HAPPY NEW YEAR and a lot of health!!! (You will need it even when you are not drinking but sipping whisky)In each paragraph, you have written, is something I wouldn´t be probably thinking of that far. Like the one about provenience of the casks.And there is a question: How do anybody know that some distillery is going to use the casks of an excellent quality? If I know that some particular distillery makes excellent raw spirit and gonna use excellent casks for maturing their whisky, then I would be the first in a row..We´ve been talking about a possible rise in value of a few bottles. Nowdays there are on the market bottles like Balvenie 9 yo from DCS compendium for £400. Or Kininvie 25 yo 0,35 l for the same price. Or even Laphroaig 32 yo for £900 or so. Why are they so expensive? Isn´t it time, we are mostly paying for, in the case of whisky or other aged spirit? What do you personally think about the future development of the whisky industry from the price point of view? Will they continue to sell NAS whiskies as a mass production and rise the prices of an age stated whiskies even more?Balvenie distillery believes that whisky market will continue to increase the prices of single malt whiskies in coming years. They also believe in collecting of rare whiskies otherwise they would not put their astoundingly expensive five chapter compendium on the market.Do you think they are experienced enough to know whether people will be willing to pay such a bloody money? Have a nice day and say to your son that he is doing well in video blog. Yours sincerely Tomas
First, thanks to you.I think I can answer one of the questions. (Still only my perspective) I think we will see a split in the market. Some distilleries are expanding their output. These are the ones who will increase their stock and will be able to supply the market with older vintages. Others will not have the stock and we will see more and more NAS whiskies in their range.
Hello Ben,thank you for your answer to one of my questions. You are probably right. A middle-class consumers will tend to buy NAS whiskies, wheras the rich guys can afford to buy the cult whiskies like Mortlach or some Islay´s single malts single casks, if there are any.The whole question for me is this. Should I buy some great single malt whiskies now or wait for possible lower prices? And how about you. Do you have your own collection of rare bourbons (like pappy van winkle 23 yo)?Yours sincerelyTomas
What's your opinion of Glenfiddich "Utlimate" 38 years Old Single Malt Scotch Whisky? What's the best way to store the bottle and its potential value?
I forwarded this thread to Horst. He is a bit more experienced with the value of whiskies.Meanwhile:Did you read this article? https://www.whisky.com/information/knowledge/collectors/do-you-collect-malt-whisky.htmlI only have a consumption collection of open whiskies (Bourbon, Scotch, Canadian and a international).As we are a German whisky store we tend to have a huge collection. We just call it stock.
"tomas" wrote:And there is a question: How do anybody know that some distillery is going to use the casks of an excellent quality? If I know that some particular distillery makes excellent raw spirit and gonna use excellent casks for maturing their whisky, then I would be the first in a row.
Most of the distilleries make the 'optimal' rawe spirit from their stills. The procedures are in place and optimized for decades. It depends on whether they fit your individual taste. Nearly all distilleries use their casks as often and as long as possible. It's a matter of economy. The quality of the particular cask depends on the selection for the bottling. Distilleries which botte close to everything as single malt do have a problem. They also have to use the whisky from very old end exhausted casks. Glenmorangie therefore decided, that they use the casks now only for two successive maturations. This will increase quality.
"tomas" wrote:What do you personally think about the future development of the whisky industry from the price point of view? Will they continue to sell NAS whiskies as a mass production and rise the prices of an age stated whiskies even more?
Prices will rise in the long run. As always. And I think they will rise faster than inflation. This will carry on until the new markets reach maturity. When will that happen? No idea. Stratfor says around 2030. But I do not believe in that.I think that whiskies with an age statement will rise more in price than those without. Because it is cheaper to produce NAS-whisky that long matured.
"tomas" wrote:Balvenie distillery believes that whisky market will continue to increase the prices of single malt whiskies in coming years. They also believe in collecting of rare whiskies otherwise they would not put their astoundingly expensive five chapter compendium on the market.Do you think they are experienced enough to know whether people will be willing to pay such a bloody money?
Selling high or overpriced whisky is no problem in certain amounts. There are 1% super rich people in the western world. People who do not have to look after money at all. 0.2 to 0.5% of the consumers are attracted by excellent (Scotch) whisky. 700 million people live in North America and the EC. That are 7m super rich. 0.2% of these super rich equal 14,000 connoisseurs. Not all of those 14k people will love every expensive bottle. But there is always enough demand to sell a few thousands of these bottles.
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